 |
November, 1999
| BANKING |
|
Amount |
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
($bn) |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
9/99 |
9/99 |
8/99 |
Q3/99 |
Q2/99 |
Q1/99 |
Q4/98 |
1998 |
1997 |
1996 |
| HKD M0 (in HKD) |
86.9 |
9.9 |
9.4 |
9.9 |
16.9 |
5.3 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
5.3 |
7.3 |
| HKD M1 (in HKD) |
186.6 |
10.5 |
9.3 |
10.5 |
7.0 |
(2.0) |
(5.2) |
(5.2) |
(5.1) |
15.5 |
| HKD M2 (in HKD) |
1,856.7 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
9.8 |
8.5 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
19.3 |
| HKD M3 (in HKD) |
1,868.8 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
4.8 |
9.5 |
8.2 |
9.4 |
9.4 |
9.9 |
18.9 |
| Spread (Prime-Hibor3) (pa) (%) |
na |
2.50 |
1.87 |
2.22 |
3.09 |
2.97 |
3.63 |
1.86 |
1.71 |
3.07 |
| Res. mortg. loans outstanding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (before adjusted to reclassification) |
na |
6.58 |
7.0 |
6.58 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
9.6 |
9.6 |
28.3 |
18.9 |
| (after adjusted to reclassification) |
478.2 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
| Loans-to-Deposits Ratio (pa) (%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (Total) |
na |
92.4 |
94.3 |
93.8 |
98.5 |
106.6 |
114.4 |
128.8 |
158.1 |
164.2 |
| (HKD) |
na |
94.1 |
95.5 |
94.9 |
96.3 |
100.5 |
101.2 |
107.9 |
110.3 |
106.0 |
| Foreign Currency Reserves^ (in US$bn) |
90.4 |
90.4 |
89.2 |
90.4 |
88.6 |
89.5 |
89.6 |
89.6 |
93.2 |
69.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Deposits |
3,096.3 |
7.7 |
7.2 |
7.7 |
10.5 |
8.8 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
8.4 |
10.2 |
| HKD Deposits @ |
1,712.3 |
4.3 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
9.6 |
8.1 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.8 |
19.5 |
| FC Deposits # |
1,384.0 |
12.1 |
12.1 |
12.1 |
11.6 |
9.7 |
12.6 |
12.6 |
6.6 |
(0.4) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Loans & Advances |
2,860.5 |
(14.9) |
(15.8) |
(14.9) |
(19.6) |
(18.1) |
(19.8) |
(19.8) |
5.3 |
4.7 |
| Loans in HKD |
1,611.7 |
(5.6) |
(6.0) |
(5.6) |
(6.1) |
(3.6) |
(2.7) |
(2.7) |
20.4 |
16.9 |
| Loans in FC |
1,248.8 |
(24.5) |
(25.6) |
(24.5) |
(32.1) |
(30.7) |
(32.3) |
(32.3) |
(3.6) |
(1.4) |
| Loans for use in HK1 |
1,952.6 |
(9.5) |
(9.8) |
(9.5) |
(10.1) |
(6.9) |
(5.5) |
(5.5) |
22.6 |
16.0 |
| Loans for use outside HK2 |
907.9 |
(24.6) |
(26.1) |
(24.6) |
(34.6) |
(34.3) |
(36.7) |
(36.7) |
(9.8) |
(3.4) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Loans for use in HK (eop) |
1,952.6 |
(9.5) |
na |
(9.5) |
(10.1) |
(6.9) |
(5.5) |
(5.5) |
22.6 |
15.9 |
| To purchase residential properties |
610.3 |
6.0 |
na |
6.0 |
7.4 |
8.1 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
28.5 |
20.9 |
| Property Development & Investment |
381.2 |
(11.5) |
na |
(11.5) |
(13.1) |
(7.0) |
(5.5) |
(5.5) |
33.4 |
26.0 |
| Trade Finances1 |
121.5 |
(26.0) |
na |
(26.0) |
(28.2) |
(24.6) |
(22.7) |
(22.7) |
4.2 |
6.7 |
| Financial Concerns |
191.0 |
(22.9) |
na |
(22.9) |
(25.5) |
(20.1) |
(10.9) |
(10.9) |
26.2 |
16.7 |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade |
152.4 |
(18.7) |
na |
(18.7) |
(19.3) |
(13.5) |
(12.7) |
(12.7) |
16.5 |
6.3 |
| Manufacturing |
81.8 |
(17.8) |
na |
(17.8) |
(19.3) |
(15.1) |
(14.4) |
(14.4) |
2.7 |
7.6 |
| Credit Card |
35.7 |
7.5 |
na |
7.5 |
7.3 |
11.9 |
14.0 |
14.0 |
29.0 |
17.3 |
| Consumer Finance Ħħ |
103.3 |
(10.6) |
na |
(10.6) |
(16.7) |
(13.9) |
(11.9) |
(11.9) |
16.6 |
13.5 |
| PRIVATE CONSUMPTION |
|
|
|
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
Amount |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
8/99 |
8/99 |
7/99 |
Q2/99 |
Q1/99 |
Q4/98 |
Q3/98 |
1998 |
1997 |
1996 |
| Retail Sales |
(Value) |
$15.1bn |
(7.7) |
(7.9) |
(8.0) |
(13.0) |
(18.9) |
(19.4) |
(16.8) |
4.9 |
6.3 |
|
(Volume) |
na |
1.9 |
0.5 |
(1.8) |
(9.4) |
(16.7) |
(19.7) |
(16.8) |
1.1 |
1.6 |
| Restaurant Receipts |
(Value) |
$13.8bn(99Q2) |
na |
na |
(1.2) |
(2.0) |
(2.0) |
(4.4) |
(3.9) |
6.0 |
5.0 |
|
(Volume) |
na |
na |
na |
0.2 |
(1.0) |
(3.0) |
(5.9) |
(6.2) |
2.0 |
2.0 |
| Department Store |
(Value) |
na |
(19.0) |
(17.1) |
(15.4) |
(17.5) |
(25.5) |
(26.6) |
(26.5) |
(3.2) |
4.5 |
|
(Volume) |
na |
(3.8) |
(5.9) |
(1.5) |
(8.5) |
(21.2) |
(28.5) |
(27.0) |
(9.3) |
(1.5) |
| Visitors Arrivals |
0.95mn |
10.0 |
9.7 |
9.5 |
11.1 |
5.5 |
10.5 |
(8.0) |
(11.1) |
14.7 |
| PROPERTY |
|
|
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
Amount |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
9/99 |
9/99 |
8/99 |
Q3/99 |
Q2/99 |
Q1/99 |
Q4/98 |
1998 |
1997 |
1996 |
| Sales & purchase agreements |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Value |
$13.2bn |
(1.5) |
(12.6) |
1.9 |
(19.6) |
(18.4) |
(5.1) |
(54.3) |
83 |
79 |
| Number |
5,640 |
10.5 |
(3.4) |
14.1 |
4.1 |
10.9 |
18.0 |
(50.2) |
39 |
51 |
| New res. mortg. approved of 33 AIs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Number, during the period |
6,663 |
18.0 |
47 |
24.2 |
55.2 |
26.3 |
29.9 |
(34.9) |
18.5 |
68.5 |
| Value per loan, during the period |
$1.44mn |
2.1 |
(2.0) |
(2.2) |
(7.9) |
(27.8) |
(24.1) |
(12.0) |
27.2 |
6.8 |
| Private residential |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Rental (official) |
na |
na |
na |
na |
(16.5) |
(19.7) |
(26.2) |
(16.5) |
13.5 |
(1.7) |
| Price (official) |
na |
7.4 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
(18.7) |
(27.1) |
(38.9) |
(52.9) |
40.9 |
9.6 |
| HK |
$4,143/sf |
9.1 |
0.4 |
2.9 |
(13.4) |
(25.5) |
(37.6) |
(29.4) |
na |
na |
| KL |
$3,688/sf |
8.3 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
(10.9) |
(25.3) |
(39.6) |
(31.9) |
na |
na |
| NT |
$3,083/sf |
9.5 |
3.9 |
4.9 |
(8.5) |
(21.5) |
(37.2) |
(32.2) |
na |
na |
| Rental yield (%) : |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| HK |
na |
4.22 |
4.10 |
4.14 |
4.04 |
4.23 |
4.35 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
na |
| KL |
na |
4.79 |
4.78 |
4.70 |
4.42 |
4.49 |
4.62 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
na |
| NT |
na |
3.99 |
3.89 |
3.87 |
3.72 |
3.71 |
3.83 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
na |
| Residential construction completed (sq.m.), ytd |
599.4thou.
Jun |
66.0
Jun |
32.2
May |
na |
32.1 |
7.7 |
1.1 |
22.9 |
(7) |
(13) |
| Res.l construction consent to start work (sq.m.), ytd |
586.2thou. Jun |
(17.7)
Jun |
(7.9)
May |
na |
7.6 |
79.7 |
57.8 |
(9.7) |
54 |
54 |
| MACRO INDICATORS |
|
Amount |
% change, yoy unless otherwise stated |
|
($bn) |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
9/99 |
9/99 |
8/99 |
Q3/99 |
Q2/99 |
Q1/99 |
Q4/98 |
1998 |
1997 |
1996 |
| GDP |
na |
na |
na |
na |
0.7 |
(3.2) |
(5.6) |
(5.1) |
5.0 |
4.5 |
| Composite CPI |
na |
(6.0) |
(6.1) |
(5.9) |
(4.0) |
(1.8) |
(0.7) |
2.8 |
5.8 |
6.3 |
| Labour |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Unemployment Rate (%) |
na |
6.1 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
4.7 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
| Unemployed ('000 people) |
na |
224.0 |
220.6 |
220.3 |
214.4 |
207.6 |
194.1 |
157.6 |
71.3 |
86.1 |
| External Trade |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total Exports |
121.0 |
5.9 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
(5.9) |
(9.0) |
(13.6) |
(7.4) |
4.2 |
4.0 |
| Domestic Exports |
14.7 |
(8.4) |
(9.5) |
(9.7) |
(15.3) |
(12.2) |
(19.0) |
(10.9) |
(0.4) |
(8.4) |
| Re-exports |
106.3 |
8.3 |
6.7 |
6.8 |
(4.3) |
(8.5) |
(12.7) |
(6.9) |
5.0 |
6.6 |
| Total Imports |
124.8 |
7.9 |
1.7 |
4.4 |
(11.3) |
(13.8) |
(18.2) |
(11.5) |
5.2 |
3.0 |
| Trade Balance (in $bn) |
(3.8) |
(3.8) |
2.4 |
(6.4) |
(12.2) |
(12.9) |
(8.1) |
(81.4) |
(159.1) |
(137.8) |
^ Foreign Currency Reserves in Land Fund are not included before June 30, 1997.
 Consumer finance included individual private and business loans other than property purchases & credit card advance.
1 Loans to finance merchandising trade not touching HK would be included in trade finance & loans for use in HK.
2 Others loans where the place of use is not known would be included in loans for use outside HK.
| pa: Period averages |
@ adjusted to include swap deposits |
| # adjusted to exclude swap deposits |
eop: End-of-period |
| na: Not applicable |
e: Estimate |
This material is prepared by the Economic Research Department. Data on Hong Kong are obtained from the Census and Statistics Department & the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. It is based upon information which we consider reliable. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
KEY INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
(Update: 5th November, 1999) |
| Country |
Unemployment
Rate |
Inflation
Rate |
Real GNP/GDP
Growth Rate |
Trade Balance
(US$ bn) |
Money Supply
(narrow) |
Prime Lending
Rate |
| US |
4.2% (Sep) |
2.6% (Sep) |
3.9% (Q2) |
-30.60 (Aug) |
1.7% (Sep) |
8.25% |
| UK |
5.9% (Aug) |
1.1% (Sep) |
1.8% (Q3) |
-3.05 (Aug) |
7.5% (Aug) |
5.5% |
| Euro-11 |
10.2% (Aug) |
1.2% (Sep) |
1.6% (Q2) |
12.52 (Jul) |
12.8% (Aug) |
3.65% |
| Japan |
4.7% (Aug) |
0.3% (Aug) |
0.8% (Q2) |
9.91 (Aug) |
13.0% (Sep) |
1.375% |
| Australia |
7.4% (Sep) |
1.7% (Q3) |
4.1% (Q2) |
-0.81 (Aug) |
7.2% (Aug) |
7.75% |
| Canada |
7.5% (Sep) |
2.6% (Sep) |
3.7% (Q2) |
2.40 (Aug) |
3.1% (Aug) |
6.25% |
| China |
3.1%* |
-0.8% (Sep) |
7.0% (Q3) |
3.3 (Sep) |
14.8% (Sep) |
5.85%** |
| Hong Kong |
6.1% (Jul-Sep) |
-6.0% (Sep) |
0.7% (Q2) |
-0.49 (Sep) |
10.5% (Sep) |
8.5% |
* Official figure, end of 1998
** One-year lending rate |
Chart 1: Property loans are more than ever become the main source of interest income of the banking industry.
Chart 2: Loan growth is weak across the board. Even the usually strong credit card advances pose a record low growth.
Chart 3: Property market became more sluggish during the third quarter this year, with prices declined by a monthly average of about 1.8%. |
|
