 |
August, 2000
| BANKING |
|
Amount |
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
($bn) |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
6/00 |
6/00 |
5/00 |
Q2/00 |
Q1/00 |
Q4/99 |
Q3/99 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| HKD M0 (in HKD) |
90.2 |
6.6 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
7.3 |
22.6 |
9.9 |
22.6 |
0.7 |
5.3 |
| HKD M1 (in HKD) |
193.1 |
6.1 |
7.3 |
6.1 |
9.7 |
15.2 |
10.5 |
15.2 |
-5.2 |
-5.1 |
| HKD M2 (in HKD) |
1,922.4 |
4.1 |
1.6 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
| HKD M3 (in HKD) |
1,935.1 |
4.2 |
1.8 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
9.4 |
9.9 |
| Spread (Prime-Hibor3) (pa) (%) |
na |
2.92 |
2.31 |
2.65 |
2.81 |
2.35 |
2.22 |
2.66 |
1.86 |
1.71 |
| Res. mortg. loans outstanding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (before adjusted to reclassification) |
na |
0.7 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
6.58 |
4.0 |
9.6 |
28.3 |
| (after adjusted to reclassification) |
480.0 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
| Loans-to-Deposits Ratio (pa) (%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (Total) |
na |
78.6 |
81.6 |
80.9 |
86.0 |
89.9 |
93.8 |
97.2 |
128.8 |
158.1 |
| (HKD) |
na |
91.6 |
94.3 |
93.2 |
93.0 |
92.4 |
94.9 |
96.0 |
107.9 |
110.3 |
| Foreign Currency Reserves^ (in US$bn) |
97.1 |
97.1 |
95.2 |
97.1 |
93.8 |
96.3 |
90.4 |
96.3 |
89.6 |
93.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Deposits |
3,294.4 |
10.1 |
7.3 |
10.1 |
8.2 |
7.6 |
7.7 |
7.6 |
10.9 |
8.4 |
| HKD Deposits @ |
1,777.6 |
4.1 |
1.3 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
9.7 |
9.8 |
| FC Deposits # |
1,516.9 |
17.9 |
15.2 |
17.9 |
14.2 |
11.6 |
12.1 |
11.6 |
12.6 |
6.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Loans & Advances |
2,590.2 |
-10.4 |
-11.2 |
-10.4 |
-11.4 |
-14.8 |
-14.9 |
-14.8 |
-19.8 |
5.3 |
| Loans in HKD |
1,629.0 |
0 |
-1.2 |
0 |
-2.8 |
-5.1 |
-5.6 |
-5.1 |
-2.7 |
20.4 |
| Loans in FC |
961.2 |
-23.8 |
-23.9 |
-23.8 |
-21.8 |
-25.1 |
-24.5 |
-25.1 |
-32.3 |
-3.6 |
| Loans for use in HK1 |
1,929.3 |
-2.5 |
-3.9 |
-2.5 |
-5.9 |
-8.2 |
-9.5 |
-8.2 |
-5.5 |
22.6 |
| Loans for use outside HK2 |
660.9 |
-27.5 |
-26.9 |
-27.5 |
-22.7 |
-26.5 |
-24.6 |
-26.5 |
-36.7 |
-9.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Loans for use in HK (eop) |
1,929.3 |
-2.5 |
na |
-2.5 |
-5.9 |
-8.2 |
-9.5 |
-8.2 |
-5.5 |
22.6 |
| To purchase residential properties |
533.2 |
0.4 |
na |
0.4 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
5.5 |
3.3 |
9.0 |
28.5 |
| Property Development & Investment |
393.6 |
2.9 |
na |
2.9 |
-4.1 |
-7.9 |
-11.4 |
-7.9 |
-5.5 |
33.4 |
| Trade Finances1 |
116.1 |
-8.6 |
na |
-8.6 |
-18.8 |
-23.5 |
-26.0 |
-23.5 |
-22.7 |
4.2 |
| Financial Concerns |
174.1 |
-9.2 |
na |
-9.2 |
-16.2 |
-18.7 |
-21.4 |
-18.7 |
-10.9 |
26.2 |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade |
135.3 |
-14.2 |
na |
-14.2 |
-16.7 |
-19.7 |
-18.6 |
-19.7 |
-12.7 |
16.5 |
| Manufacturing |
76.6 |
-10.3 |
na |
-10.3 |
-13.5 |
-15.3 |
-17.8 |
-15.3 |
-14.4 |
2.7 |
| Credit Card |
42.0 |
20.7 |
na |
20.7 |
15.1 |
7.2 |
7.5 |
7.2 |
14.0 |
29.0 |
| Consumer Finance ¡± |
100.2 |
-0.8 |
na |
-0.8 |
-3.9 |
-8.3 |
-12.5 |
-8.3 |
-11.9 |
16.6 |
| PRIVATE CONSUMPTION |
|
|
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
Amount |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
5/00 |
5/00 |
4/00 |
Q1/00 |
Q4/99 |
Q3/99 |
Q2/99 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| Retail Sales |
(Value) |
$15.9 bn |
4.1 |
8.3 |
7.3 |
-3.0 |
-7.2 |
-8.0 |
-7.8 |
-16.8 |
4.9 |
|
(Volume) |
na |
10.3 |
14.4 |
14.0 |
4.7 |
1.7 |
-1.8 |
-1.2 |
-16.8 |
1.1 |
| Restaurant Receipts |
(Value) |
$14.4 bn
(00Q1) |
na |
na |
4.7 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
-4.1 |
6.4 |
|
(Volume) |
na |
na |
na |
5.8 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
-6.3 |
2.2 |
| Department Store |
(Value) |
na |
-6.6 |
7.1 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
-14.3 |
-15.4 |
-10.9 |
-26.5 |
-3.2 |
|
(Volume) |
na |
-3.4 |
12.4 |
10.3 |
16.7 |
-0.8 |
-1.5 |
1.5 |
-27.0 |
-9.3 |
| Visitors Arrivals |
1.07 mn |
18.1 |
20.5 |
15.3 |
12.7 |
10.9 |
9.5 |
11.1 |
-8.0 |
-11.1 |
| PROPERTY |
|
|
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
Amount |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
6/00 |
6/00 |
5/00 |
Q2/00 |
Q1/00 |
Q4/99 |
Q3/99 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| Sales & purchase agreements |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Value |
$11.7 bn |
-53.7 |
-45.9 |
-41.3 |
-16.7 |
-44.9 |
1.9 |
-20.3 |
-54.3 |
83.0 |
| Number |
4,873 |
-45.4 |
-49.6 |
-34.3 |
-27.1 |
-46.9 |
14.1 |
-4.5 |
-50.2 |
39.0 |
| New res. mortg. approved of 33 AIs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Number, during the period |
8,786 |
-9.0 |
-7.5 |
-9.2 |
33.5 |
12.3 |
24.2 |
29.5 |
-34.9 |
18.5 |
| Value per loan, during the period |
$1.41 mn |
-13.0 |
-6.2 |
-4.3 |
-0.7 |
-2.0 |
-2.2 |
-10.0 |
-12.0 |
27.2 |
| Private residential |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Rental (official) |
na |
na |
na |
na |
-4.8 |
-3.4 |
-5.9 |
-10.5 |
-16.5 |
13.5 |
| Price (official) |
na |
na |
-12.9 |
na |
-3.4 |
1.4 |
3.9 |
-8.8 |
-52.9 |
40.9 |
| HK |
$3,646/sf |
-14.9 |
-14.8 |
-13.5 |
-2.8 |
0.1 |
2.9 |
-9.0 |
-29.4 |
na |
| KL |
$3,329/sf |
-12.6 |
-13.5 |
-12.4 |
-2.6 |
-2.6 |
3.7 |
-8.8 |
-31.9 |
na |
| NT |
$2,690/sf |
-17.4 |
-15.8 |
-14.4 |
-5.0 |
-1.8 |
4.9 |
-6.7 |
-32.2 |
na |
| Rental yield (%) : |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| HK |
na |
4.45 |
4.47 |
4.38 |
4.18 |
4.22 |
4.14 |
4.16 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
| KL |
na |
5.04 |
4.75 |
4.90 |
4.71 |
4.77 |
4.70 |
4.60 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
| NT |
na |
4.27 |
4.37 |
4.24 |
3.91 |
4.01 |
3.87 |
3.83 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
| Residential construction completed (sq.m.), ytd |
300.3 thou.
Mar |
15.5
Mar |
38.8
Feb |
na |
15.5 |
48.1 |
40.1 |
48.1 |
22.9 |
-7.0 |
| Residential construction consent to start work (sq.m.), ytd |
475.2 thou.
Mar |
7.0
Mar |
53.9
Feb |
na |
7.0 |
15.0 |
27.7 |
15.0 |
-9.7 |
54.0 |
| MACRO INDICATORS |
|
Amount |
% change, yoy unless otherwise stated |
|
($bn) |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
6/00 |
6/00 |
5/00 |
Q2/00 |
Q1/00 |
Q4/99 |
Q3/99 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| GDP |
na |
na |
na |
na |
14.3 |
9.2 |
4.4 |
2.9 |
-5.1 |
5.0 |
| Composite CPI |
na |
-4.6 |
-4.5 |
-4.5 |
-5.1 |
-4.1 |
-5.9 |
-4.0 |
2.8 |
5.8 |
| Labour |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Unemployment Rate (%) |
na |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
4.7 |
2.2 |
| Unemployed ('000 people) |
na |
178.0 |
177.4 |
181.8 |
199.6 |
223.7 |
220.3 |
216.5 |
157.6 |
71.3 |
| External Trade (Nominal) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total Exports |
126.2 |
14.1 |
22.3 |
17.2 |
20.0 |
10.1 |
4.3 |
0.1 |
-7.4 |
4.2 |
| Domestic Exports |
15.1 |
-0.5 |
12.8 |
6.0 |
14.2 |
-0.5 |
-9.7 |
-9.5 |
-10.9 |
-0.4 |
|
Re-exports |
111.0 |
16.5 |
23.7 |
18.9 |
20.8 |
11.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
-6.9 |
5.0 |
| Total Imports |
132.5 |
14.5 |
29.2 |
20.4 |
22.8 |
11.1 |
4.4 |
-2.5 |
-11.5 |
5.2 |
| Trade Balance (in $bn) |
-6.3 |
-6.3 |
-7.9 |
-24.8 |
-24.0 |
-12.2 |
-6.4 |
-43.7 |
-81.4 |
-159.1 |
|
FORECASTS FOR REAL GDP & CPI |
|
2000F (Gov) |
2000F (BEA) |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| GDP |
6.0 |
8.6 |
3.0 |
-5.1 |
5.0 |
| Private Consumption |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1.1 |
-6.7 |
6.2 |
| Government |
2.5 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
| Capital Formation |
7.6 |
8.5 |
-17.7 |
-6.4 |
12.7 |
| Domestic Exports |
5.0 |
10.0 |
-7.2 |
-7.9 |
2.1 |
| Re-exports |
11.5 |
17.0 |
5.4 |
-3.7 |
6.8 |
| Total Exports |
10.7 |
16.1 |
3.7 |
-4.3 |
6.1 |
| Imports of Goods |
11.7 |
17.9 |
0.1 |
-7.2 |
7.2 |
| Visible Trade (HK$ billion) |
-51.0 |
-63.7 |
-33.1 |
-80.3 |
-129.6 |
| Exports of Services |
8.0 |
14.0 |
6.3 |
-6.6 |
-0.1 |
| Imports of Services |
3.0 |
5.0 |
-0.6 |
-0.6 |
4.0 |
| Invisible Trade (HK$ billion) |
93.7 |
104.0 |
80.5 |
66.8 |
80.5 |
| CPI (Composite) |
-2.5 |
-3.0 |
-4.0 |
2.9 |
5.8 |
| Unit: percentage |
^ Foreign Currency Reserves in Land Fund are not included before June 30, 1997.
 Consumer finance included individual private and business loans other than property purchases & credit card advance.
1 Loans to finance merchandising trade not touching HK would be included in trade finance & loans for use in HK.
2 Others loans where the place of use is not known would be included in loans for use outside HK.
| pa: Period averages |
@ adjusted to include swap deposits |
| # adjusted to exclude swap deposits |
eop: End-of-period |
| na: Not applicable |
e: Estimate |
This material is prepared by the Economic Research Department. Data on Hong Kong are obtained from the Census and Statistics Department & the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. It is based upon information which we consider reliable. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
KEY INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
(Update: 11th August, 2000) |
| Country |
Unemployment
Rate |
Inflation
Rate |
Real GNP/GDP
Growth Rate |
Trade Balance
(US$ bn) |
Money Supply
(narrow) |
Prime Lending
Rate |
| US |
4.0% (Jun.) |
3.7% (Jun.) |
6.0% (Q2) |
-37.17 (May) |
0.2% (Jun.) |
9.5% |
| UK |
5.6% (May) |
3.3% (Jun.) |
3.1% (Q2) |
-3.83 (May) |
7.6% (Jun.) |
6.0% |
| Euro-11 |
9.1% (Jun.) |
2.4% (Jun.) |
3.4% (Q1) |
0.09 (May) |
6.8% (Jun.) |
4.95% |
| Japan |
4.7% (Jun.) |
-0.7% (Jun.) |
0.7% (Q1) |
9.16 (May) |
9.0% (Jun.) |
1.375% |
| Australia |
6.6% (Jun.) |
3.2% (Q2) |
4.3% (Q1) |
-0.68 (Jun.) |
10.3% (Jun.) |
9.0% |
| Canada |
6.6% (Jun.) |
2.9% (Jun.) |
4.9% (Q1) |
2.51 (May) |
18.7% (Jun.) |
7.5% |
| China |
3.1%* |
0.5% (Jun.) |
8.3% (Q2) |
1.9 (Jun.) |
23.7% (Jun.) |
5.85%** |
| Hong Kong |
5.0% (Apr.-Jun.) |
-4.5% (Jun.) |
14.3% (Q1) |
-0.81 (Jun.) |
6.1% (Jun.) |
9.5% |
* Official figure, end of 1998
** One-year lending rate |
|
|
