 |
April, 2000
| BANKING |
|
Amount |
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
($bn) |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
2/00 |
2/00 |
1/00 |
Q4/99 |
Q3/99 |
Q2/99 |
Q1/99 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| HKD M0 (in HKD) |
94.7 |
5.1 |
25.7 |
22.6 |
9.9 |
16.9 |
5.3 |
22.6 |
0.7 |
5.3 |
| HKD M1 (in HKD) |
219.9 |
22.8 |
22.6 |
15.2 |
10.5 |
7.0 |
(2.0) |
15.2 |
(5.2) |
(5.1) |
| HKD M2 (in HKD) |
1,883.2 |
4.5 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
9.8 |
8.5 |
5.3 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
| HKD M3 (in HKD) |
1,895.2 |
4.5 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
9.5 |
8.2 |
5.3 |
9.4 |
9.9 |
| Spread (Prime-Hibor3) (pa) (%) |
na |
2.76 |
2.82 |
2.35 |
2.22 |
3.09 |
2.97 |
2.66 |
1.86 |
1.71 |
| Res. mortg. loans outstanding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (before adjusted to reclassification) |
na |
3.2 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
6.58 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
4.0 |
9.6 |
28.3 |
| (after adjusted to reclassification) |
478.1 |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
| Loans-to-Deposits Ratio (pa) (%) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (Total) |
na |
86.0 |
87.5 |
89.9 |
93.8 |
98.5 |
106.6 |
97.2 |
128.8 |
158.1 |
| (HKD) |
na |
93.4 |
92.3 |
92.4 |
94.9 |
96.3 |
100.5 |
96.0 |
107.9 |
110.3 |
| Foreign Currency Reserves^ (in US$bn) |
93.1 |
93.1 |
94.3 |
96.3 |
90.4 |
88.6 |
89.5 |
96.3 |
89.6 |
93.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Deposits |
3,170.7 |
7.9 |
6.9 |
7.6 |
7.7 |
10.5 |
8.8 |
7.6 |
10.9 |
8.4 |
| HKD Deposits @ |
1,735.7 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
9.6 |
8.1 |
4.5 |
9.7 |
9.8 |
| FC Deposits # |
1,435.0 |
12.3 |
9.6 |
11.6 |
12.1 |
11.6 |
9.7 |
11.6 |
12.6 |
6.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Loans & Advances |
2,727.7 |
(13.4) |
(14.5) |
(14.8) |
(14.9) |
(19.6) |
(18.1) |
(14.8) |
(19.8) |
5.3 |
| Loans in HKD |
1,621.9 |
(3.5) |
(4.4) |
(5.1) |
(5.6) |
(6.1) |
(3.6) |
(5.1) |
(2.7) |
20.4 |
| Loans in FC |
1,105.8 |
(24.7) |
(25.6) |
(25.1) |
(24.5) |
(32.1) |
(30.7) |
(25.1) |
(32.3) |
(3.6) |
| Loans for use in HK1 |
1,932.0 |
(6.9) |
(7.9) |
(8.2) |
(9.5) |
(10.1) |
(6.9) |
(8.2) |
(5.5) |
22.6 |
| Loans for use outside HK2 |
795.7 |
(25.9) |
(26.7) |
(26.5) |
(24.6) |
(34.6) |
(34.3) |
(26.5) |
(36.7) |
(9.8) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Loans for use in HK (eop) |
na |
na |
na |
(8.2) |
(9.5) |
(10.1) |
(6.9) |
(8.2) |
(5.5) |
22.6 |
| To purchase residential properties |
na |
na |
na |
3.3 |
5.5 |
6.4 |
5.7 |
3.3 |
9.0 |
28.5 |
| Property Development & Investment |
na |
na |
na |
(7.9) |
(11.4) |
(13.0) |
(7.0) |
(7.9) |
(5.5) |
33.4 |
| Trade Finances1 |
na |
na |
na |
(23.5) |
(26.0) |
(28.2) |
(24.6) |
(23.5) |
(22.7) |
4.2 |
| Financial Concerns |
na |
na |
na |
(18.7) |
(21.4) |
(24.8) |
(19.2) |
(18.7) |
(10.9) |
26.2 |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade |
na |
na |
na |
(19.7) |
(18.6) |
(19.3) |
(13.5) |
(19.7) |
(12.7) |
16.5 |
| Manufacturing |
na |
na |
na |
(15.3) |
(17.8) |
(19.3) |
(15.1) |
(15.3)
|
(14.4) |
2.7 |
| Credit Card |
na |
na |
na |
7.2 |
7.5 |
7.3 |
11.9 |
7.2 |
14.0 |
29.0 |
| Consumer Finance ¡± |
na |
na |
na |
(8.3) |
(12.5) |
(16.7) |
(13.9) |
(8.3) |
(11.9) |
16.6 |
| PRIVATE CONSUMPTION |
|
|
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
Amount |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
1/00 |
1/00 |
12/99 |
Q4/99 |
Q3/99 |
Q2/99 |
Q1/99 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| Retail Sales |
(Value) |
$17.6bn |
11.7 |
(1.5) |
(3.0) |
(7.2) |
(8.0) |
(13.0) |
(7.8) |
(16.8) |
4.9 |
|
(Volume) |
na |
19.7 |
5.8 |
4.7 |
1.7 |
(1.8) |
(9.4) |
(1.2) |
(16.8) |
1.1 |
| Restaurant Receipts |
(Value) |
$14.7bn(99Q4) |
na |
na |
2.4 |
2.0 |
(0.1) |
(2.2) |
0.5 |
(3.9) |
6.0 |
|
(Volume) |
na |
na |
na |
4.0 |
3.7 |
1.3 |
(0.9) |
2.0 |
(6.2) |
2.0 |
| Department Store |
(Value) |
na |
14.4 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
(14.3) |
(15.4) |
(17.5) |
(10.9) |
(26.5) |
(3.2) |
|
(Volume) |
na |
24.1 |
13.3 |
16.7 |
(0.8) |
(1.5) |
(8.5) |
1.5 |
(27.0) |
(9.3) |
| Visitors Arrivals |
0.99mn |
19.8 |
3.8 |
12.7 |
10.9 |
9.5 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
(8.0) |
(11.1) |
| PROPERTY |
|
|
% change, yoy, unless otherwise stated |
|
Amount |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
2/00 |
2/00 |
1/00 |
Q4/99 |
Q3/99 |
Q2/99 |
Q1/99 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| Sales & purchase agreements |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Value |
$15.9bn |
(18.4) |
(16.3) |
(44.9) |
1.9 |
(19.6) |
(18.4) |
(20.3) |
(54.3) |
83.0 |
| Number |
5,698 |
(31.9) |
(25.9) |
(46.9) |
14.1 |
4.1 |
10.9 |
(4.5) |
(50.2) |
39.0 |
| New res. mortg. approved of 33 AIs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Number, during the period |
7,076 |
34.4 |
39.4 |
12.3 |
24.2 |
55.2 |
26.3 |
29.5 |
(34.9) |
18.5 |
| Value per loan, during the period |
$1.45mn |
(4.0) |
0 |
(2.0) |
(2.2) |
(7.9) |
(27.8) |
(10.0) |
(12.0) |
27.2 |
| Private residential |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Rental (official) |
na |
na |
na |
na |
(5.9) |
(14.8) |
(17.9) |
na |
(16.5) |
13.5 |
| Price (official) |
na |
na |
(3.5) |
1.5 |
3.9 |
(18.4) |
(26.0) |
(9.8) |
(52.9) |
40.9 |
| HK |
$4,072/sf |
(1.6) |
(2.1) |
0.1 |
2.9 |
(13.4) |
(25.5) |
(9.0) |
(29.4) |
na |
| KL |
$3,649/sf |
(3.0) |
1.0 |
(2.6) |
3.7 |
(10.9) |
(25.3) |
(8.8) |
(31.9) |
na |
| NT |
$3,018/sf |
(4.7) |
(5.0) |
(1.8) |
4.9 |
(8.5) |
(21.5) |
(6.7) |
(32.2) |
na |
| Rental yield (%) : |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| HK |
na |
4.14 |
4.23 |
4.22 |
4.14 |
4.04 |
4.23 |
4.16 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
| KL |
na |
4.83 |
4.69 |
4.77 |
4.70 |
4.42 |
4.49 |
4.60 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
| NT |
na |
3.87 |
3.88 |
4.01 |
3.87 |
3.72 |
3.71 |
3.83 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
| Residential construction completed (sq.m.), ytd |
1,145.1thou.
Nov |
70.4
Nov |
58.4
Oct |
na |
37.8 |
32.1 |
7.7 |
na |
22.9 |
(7.0) |
| Residential construction consent to start work (sq.m.), ytd |
1,631.0thou.
Nov |
32.8
Nov |
23.4
Oct |
na |
(0.1) |
7.6 |
79.7 |
na |
(9.7) |
54.0 |
| MACRO INDICATORS |
|
Amount |
% change, yoy unless otherwise stated |
|
($bn) |
Monthly |
Quarterly |
Yearly |
|
2/00 |
2/00 |
1/00 |
Q4/99 |
Q3/99 |
Q2/99 |
Q1/99 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| GDP |
na |
na |
na |
8.7 |
4.4 |
1.1 |
(3.0) |
2.9 |
(5.1) |
5.0 |
| Composite CPI |
na |
(5.1) |
(5.3) |
(4.1) |
(5.9) |
(4.0) |
(1.8) |
(4.0) |
2.8 |
5.8 |
| Labour |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Unemployment Rate (%) |
na |
5.7 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
4.7 |
2.2 |
| Unemployed ('000 people) |
na |
201.0 |
204.1 |
223.7 |
220.3 |
214.4 |
207.6 |
216.5 |
157.6 |
71.3 |
| External Trade (Nominal) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Total Exports |
95.2 |
20.3 |
14.1 |
10.1 |
4.3 |
(5.9) |
(9.0) |
0.1 |
(7.4) |
4.2 |
| Domestic Exports |
11.8 |
13.6 |
8.8 |
(0.5) |
(9.7) |
(15.3) |
(12.2) |
(9.5) |
(10.9) |
(0.4) |
|
Re-exports |
83.3 |
21.3 |
14.9 |
11.8 |
6.8 |
(4.3) |
(8.5) |
1.7 |
(6.9) |
5.0 |
| Total Imports |
102.1 |
27.2 |
16.4 |
11.1 |
4.4 |
(11.3) |
(13.8) |
(2.5) |
(11.5) |
5.2 |
| Trade Balance (in $bn) |
(6.9) |
(6.9) |
(3.2) |
(12.2) |
(6.4) |
(12.2) |
(12.9) |
(43.7) |
(81.4) |
(159.1) |
|
FORECAST of GDP IN REAL TERM & CPI |
|
2000F (Gov) |
2000F (BEA) |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
| GDP |
5.0 |
5.4 |
2.9 |
(5.1) |
5.0 |
| Private Consumption |
2.5 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
(6.7) |
6.2 |
| Government |
2.5 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
| Capital Formation |
5.6 |
6.5 |
(17.6) |
(6.4) |
12.7 |
| Domestic Exports |
(4.0) |
2.0 |
(7.2) |
(7.9) |
2.1 |
| Re-exports |
10.0 |
11.0 |
5.4 |
(3.7) |
6.8 |
| Total Exports |
8.2 |
9.9 |
3.7 |
(4.3) |
6.1 |
| Imports of Goods |
8.9 |
10.7 |
0.1 |
(7.2) |
7.2 |
| Visible Trade (HK$ billion) |
($44.9) |
($48.0) |
($33.1) |
($80.3) |
($129.6) |
| Exports of Services |
8.0 |
7.0 |
5.5 |
(6.6) |
(0.1) |
| Imports of Services |
5.0 |
4.0 |
(0.9) |
(0.6) |
4.0 |
| Invisible Trade (HK$ billion) |
$89.6 |
$88.8 |
$79.2 |
$66.8 |
$80.5 |
| CPI (Composite) |
(1.0) |
(2.4) |
(4.0) |
2.9 |
5.8 |
| Unit: percentage |
^ Foreign Currency Reserves in Land Fund are not included before June 30, 1997.
 Consumer finance included individual private and business loans other than property purchases & credit card advance.
1 Loans to finance merchandising trade not touching HK would be included in trade finance & loans for use in HK.
2 Others loans where the place of use is not known would be included in loans for use outside HK.
| pa: Period averages |
@ adjusted to include swap deposits |
| # adjusted to exclude swap deposits |
eop: End-of-period |
| na: Not applicable |
e: Estimate |
This material is prepared by the Economic Research Department. Data on Hong Kong are obtained from the Census and Statistics Department & the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. It is based upon information which we consider reliable. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
KEY INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
(Update: 14th April, 2000) |
| Country |
Unemployment
Rate |
Inflation
Rate |
Real GNP/GDP
Growth Rate |
Trade Balance
(US$ bn) |
Money Supply
(narrow) |
Prime Lending
Rate |
| US |
4.1% (Mar.) |
3.2% (Feb.) |
4.6% (Q4) |
-34.74 (Jan.) |
1.0% (Feb.) |
9.0% |
| UK |
5.9% (Jan.) |
2.3% (Feb.) |
3.0% (Q4) |
-4.43 (Jan.) |
8.5% (Feb.) |
6.0% |
| Euro-11 |
9.5% (Feb.) |
2.0% (Feb.) |
3.1% (Q4) |
-3.85 (Jan.) |
10.4% (Feb.) |
3.9% |
| Japan |
4.9% (Feb.) |
-0.6% (Feb.) |
0.9% (Q3) |
12.39 (Jan.) |
12.3% (Feb.) |
1.375% |
| Australia |
6.9% (Mar.) |
1.8% (Q4) |
4.3% (Q4) |
-0.57 (Feb.) |
8.3% (Feb.) |
8.75% |
| Canada |
6.8% (Mar.) |
2.7% (Feb.) |
4.7% (Q4) |
3.13 (Jan.) |
13.7% (Feb.) |
7.0% |
| China |
3.1%* |
0.7% (Feb.) |
6.0% (Q4) |
1.4 (Feb.) |
15.3% (Feb.) |
5.85%** |
| Hong Kong |
5.7%
(Dec.-Feb.) |
-5.1% (Feb.) |
8.7% (Q4) |
-0.88 (Feb.) |
22.8% (Feb.) |
9.0% |
* Official figure, end of 1998
** One-year lending rate |
|
|
